Everything I Need to Know, I Learned from Star Trek

 The renaissance of the Star Trek universe happened when I was young. The original series had its own cult following of course, but that was far before my time. In 1987, the franchise was revived and reinvented with the premiere of Star Trek: The Next Generation, or “TNG” as it ultimately became known. It gained a fiercely loyal following, and I was one of those fans from the very beginning. Already a science fiction fan by the time I was nine, I was enthralled by this new weekly glimpse into one possible future for our species. It was hopeful, imaginative, and inspiring, and I sat absolutely rapt for one hour every week, just drinking it in. For me and for many others like me, it demonstrated the best aspects of human nature – our bravery, our curiosity, our discipline, our selflessness – and gave us all a standard to aspire to. While some may scoff at the franchise, shrugging it off as “cowboys and Indians with lasers”, Gene Roddenberry had an undeniably unique vision, and this is part of the reason why it has endured so long, spawning 6 television series, 12 feature films, and a library of related literature. Roddenberry didn't want to just tell a story - he wanted to create a morality play and a far-reaching drama, in which the characters learned and grew as individuals while they set about exploring the universe. The more you watch, the more you notice that there is a distinct moral philosophy woven into this universe, and that it actually gets a lot of things right. The following are a few of the moral themes that are emphasized on a regular basis.

1. Force is always a last resort. Much like in the martial arts, it's always considered smart to be prepared for a fight, but relying on strength to win every battle makes you a bully. Self-defense, and the defense of those who cannot defend themselves, are the only real reasons to use force, and then only after negotiation has failed. In almost any conflict, there is some mutually beneficial option available if both parties are willing to work toward it, and finding this option should always be the first priority. However, if you do get into a fight, make sure that you win...and brains can often trump brawn.
2. The ends never justify the means. Too often a seemingly noble goal is used to excuse bad behavior, and this eternal dilemma became a recurring theme within the franchise. Ultimately, hard choices have to sometimes be made, but the lesson often illustrated was that we must live by our chosen morality, even when it is difficult, or when the immediate repercussions are not in our favor. We are, ultimately, judged by what we do, particularly in difficult situations, and setting a positive example is often much more powerful and beneficial in the long term than opting for a quick or convenient short-term solution. It's far too easy, once one starts down a shady path, to justify increasingly abhorrent acts in the name of some ideal, until finally, one becomes the very monster one set out to slay.
3. Knowledge is power. Not surprisingly, science plays a key role in Star Trek, as it does in any form of science fiction. What Star Trek does particularly well is illustrate how science is more than just a body of knowledge; it is, as Carl Sagan put it, a way of thinking, of rationally interrogating the world. Over and over, it is highlighted that the more knowledge one can obtain about a problem, the more easy it is to come up with a workable solution, and that the universe is understandable for those who are willing to ask the right questions. Star Trek envisioned a future in which superstition and ignorance have largely been banished, but where wonder and spirituality have plenty of room to exist. What kind of world might we create for ourselves if we could turn this vision into reality?
4. Money is less rewarding than experience, and achieving personal goals. Very little is said about money on Star Trek, and if you ask anyone who watches, I'm sure they'd tell you the franchise is that much better off without it. One of the most important aspects of the Star Trek universe, I believe, is that it offers a view of a future society that isn't primarily driven by money and greed. Instead of the cynical, capitalist view that profit is the only thing capable of motivating people, it recognizes that we do have nobler ambitions, and can find deeper satisfaction in life by organizing our social systems accordingly. When money is mentioned, it is often in order to illustrate how easily it can come between friends, families and societies. Is Star Trek socialist? It would appear so, but it also appears to offer a more positive vision than anything capitalism has delivered to date. Something to think about.
5. Unity comes through shared goals. “To seek out new life and new civilizations...” That was always the goal in the Star Trek universe, and it's one that has undoubtedly captured the hearts and minds of a generation. On the show, it helped to bind not just humanity but a divergent collection of species together, this common quest for the stars, and it turns out that reality isn't much different. We've seen it in our history, and we can see it in many places today – nothing unites people like the challenges of exploration, whether it be the exploration of new territory, or new ideas. Across the world, scientists from many countries, some former enemies, are increasingly united in the pursuit of science. We are starting to recognize that we can achieve much more together than we can apart, and space, the final frontier, is calling. Perhaps, as Roddenberry's vision suggests, this ultimate goal can be the one that finally unites our planet. After all, space is big enough for all of us.
6. The unknown shouldn't be feared. Yes, occasionally exploring the unknown would land our heroes in a difficult situation, but they never let that slow them down. In the end, exploration was always a challenge (it's supposed to be), but that's what made for such fun, exciting plot-lines, just as it often makes for unique and invaluable experiences in real life. Both on the show and in the real world, new knowledge and technologies are often discovered as a result of pushing our boundaries and comfort zones. The benefits of exploring the unknown far outweigh the costs, and this is one of the most important messages that was passed on to a generation of viewers. After all, two primal impulses constantly play tug-of-war for dominance in our psyche – our curiosity, and our fear – and of the two, I know which I would prefer to guide the future of our species.
7. It doesn't matter who you are, what you look like, or who you love. While many of the aliens on Star Trek looked suspiciously humanoid – most likely to cut the make-up artists a bit of slack – it always made a point of promoting the ideals of both equality and strength in diversity. The original series featured the first televised inter-racial kiss, and every incarnation thereafter has addressed issues of equality head-on. A common theme is that of the 'odd man out' saving the day, highlighting just how valuable it can be to have a diversity of backgrounds, abilities and viewpoints in virtually any situation. Unwaveringly, the shows held to the ideal that anyone can make a contribution, and that co-operation is possible between even the most unlikely of partners. After all, if even the Klingons and the Federation could make peace, then it must be possible for all of us here on Earth to come to some mutual understanding.
8. Sometimes rules have to be broken. While the Star Trek series focus on the command crews of military ships and bases, and while there is consequently a command structure to be followed, it is frequently acknowledged that no rule should be absolute. Often, it is highlighted just how important individual judgement can be in difficult situations, and that while rules can provide a good guideline for behavior, there are many grey areas that they cannot fully anticipate. In these situations, sometimes morality requires us to bend or even break the rules, and although making this sort of a determination can be difficult, it can be simplified somewhat by making a habit of considering such complicated moral questions. The 'right' answers, in both fiction and real life, are rarely black and white, and so the best leaders are portrayed as part-time philosophers, able to discern and weigh the finer moral dilemmas and shades of grey in every situation.
9. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. The common good is a key consideration in Star Trek. While individuality is important, it does not take priority over the needs of one's friends and co-workers, or the rest of society for that matter. When a choice is presented wherein an individual can benefit at the expense of others it is universally shunned, and when a sacrifice is needed for the greater good it is generally understood to be simply par for the course. Often, sacrifices are made for total strangers in need, and this is the sort of nobility that we could always stand to see more of. Valuing individuality should not come at a cost to the community that supports that individual, and yet today it often does. Recognizing that true strength lies in unity is a milestone that some individuals and societies have trouble reaching, but it never hurts to have a positive example broadcast on a weekly basis.

 As far as philosophies go, one would be hard pressed to do better. Star Trek is firmly grounded in simple common sense, and yet it in defining its moral framework it somehow matches or surpasses the many religious philosophies, in terms of pure humanity, humility and utilitarianism. With the specter of superstition removed, it becomes easy to craft a philosophy, using reason, that can be of the most benefit to the most people, and not one group to the exclusion of others. Awe and wonder at the awesome machinery of nature serve to fill the gap that superstition leaves in the human psyche, and we already know that nature holds enough wondrous complexity to challenge us indefinitely. Maybe, someday, as we move out and start to explore nearby stars, this outlook will start to make more sense to more people. In the meantime, some of us are already inspired to look up at night, and imagine a more hopeful future.  

Interview: The Game Plan for Public Policy in the Next Century

 I recently had the opportunity to ask some questions of an employee of the Canadian Federal Government, with the aim of better understanding how public policy is formed, how the politics of the day can influence it, and what issues an insider might consider critical. In the coming decades, we will desperately need not just sound but innovative policies to address our social woes and to manage a rapidly changing world. I hope to push the discourse on this forward in any way I can. While the questions and answers here relate to Canadian politics and policy, the underlying issues are relevant anywhere in the world.

Q: What areas of public policy have you worked with most directly?

 As a Canadian civil servant, I have worked mostly on international public policy. In particular, I have worked on security sector reform in Haiti, and Canada-U.S. environmental policy, especially related to trans-boundary water issues. Moreover, I worked on policy research and policy coordination within the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development. Prior to that, I worked for an MP, gaining exposure to a wide variety of public policy issues.

Q: How long have you worked with public policy? What trends have you seen in that time?

 If all the experiences above are counted, this amounts to 10 years. These experiences are rather disparate and may not be representative of the whole of “public policy”. Nonetheless, I can make a few observations:

1. The importance of effectively communicating on policy issues.
2. The increasing set of actors involved in areas of the spectrum of public policy.
3. The increasingly multidisciplinary nature of public policy.
4. The importance of reviewing public policies to keep them current.

Q: Are there particular policy decisions that stand out as either great failures or great successes?

 Among others, I'd say:

 Failure: The inability of the international community to devise an effective mechanism to address and reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.

 Failure: The ongoing efforts to pursue policies of economic and financial austerity in contexts of depressed economics, like in the European Union.

 Success: The Canadian Boreal Forest Agreement, at least it is a potential success for now. This is an agreement between logging companies and environmental NGOs, that helps to prevent the logging of boreal forests. Essentially, the logging companies agree to avoid them, and the NGOs don't lead boycotts against these companies' products, and may even promote them.

 Success: The Montreal Protocol. The treaty designed to protect the ozone layer, which entered into force in 1989, the first universally ratified treaty in United Nations history.

Q: What do you believe are key factors in crafting sound public policy?

 An openness to evidence-based public policy. A cooperative disposition or nature.

Q: How important do you feel that science is to the creation of public policy?

 Science, which includes both the natural sciences and the social sciences, is fundamental to the creation and maintenance of sound public policies.

Q: In general, which party or parties do you feel typically draft policies that show positive real-world results when applied, and why?

 In this context, I take parties to mean Canadian political parties at the federal level. In that perspective, the only true contenders are the Conservatives and Liberals, as both have been in office. My personal feelings are that the Conservatives are too willing to take positions that are not based on actual evidence, but that may be politically popular instead. The Liberals seem to be more open to work with evidence and stake out positions more in keeping with this evidence.

Q: Which party or parties tend to be more open to non-partisan collaboration? To science? Which tend to be open to change if the facts dictate it necessary?

 To me, the Canadian federal experience of the past 5-10 demonstrates that the Liberals, NDP, Green Parties are more collaborative-minded. The Conservative Party has been much less open to collaboration. Up to a certain degree, however, this may represent the fact that they are in office. There may be fewer incentives to cooperate with others.

 As for science, it is difficult to say. One can support science in a variety of ways, so there can be a number of “right” answers. Education financing, especially through the provincial context, may be important. R&D financing can be another way of looking at this question, but this is also supported by the private sector. Different parties can have different positions on all these issues, and they can all affect their commitment to “science.”

 I think all parties (often as represented by the party leader) have changed their views in accordance with the evolution of facts. Sometimes, party leaders change their minds even if the facts don't change. So the question to ask is not so much a look back at which parties changed. The questions to ask may be: what made them change their minds? How did this evolution happen?

Q: Where do you see trends in public policy heading in the next ten to twenty years?

 I think that trends I mentioned earlier will continue to amplify.

Q: Can you provide a few suggestions of your own in terms of what policies you feel would have the most positive impact on Canadian society in the next ten years or so? What about for developing nations?

 Canada: An effective climate change policy by the federal government, specifically a carbon tax. A full review of Canadian citizenship. Free trade with Europe must now be applied. Keeping to the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. A national childcare service.

 Developing nations: Demanding that donors keep to the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. Keeping military budgets low. Promoting regionalism through free trade and other small international organizations.

Q: How do you feel developed nations can best bring developing nations up to higher standard of living and to a level of self-sufficiency, without sacrificing the environment?

 Self-sufficiency is not necessarily good. I think it may be a bit bad. The free market is still the best way to develop economically. However, the government must curb its excesses. The government should also develop innovative policy solutions to promote economic and social development. The Bolsa Familia, a social welfare program in Brazil, is one example that is showing widespread success. Free trade with neighbours and all those who are open to it.

Q: Is Capitalism, and its focus on GDP as an indicator of success, viable for the long term? Do you see any better alternatives or better indicators of success?

 I think capitalism can be viable for the long term, provided that governments curb its excesses. I agree that GDP is a limiting indicator of success. That said, people and governments can make choices to use other indicators. Life expectancy; Average level of educational achievement; National Happiness levels (Bhutan); Proportion of Millenium Development Goals. New indicators can be developed if there is a need.

Q: If you could make one recommendation to countries around the world, or change one set of policies tomorrow, what would it be?

 A global carbon tax, applicable evenly everywhere. I would do it today, not tomorrow.

Q: Finally, where do you see global society heading in the more distant future? What predictions might you make about the late 21^st century? How can we help to guarantee such long-term sustainability?

 In the absence of a deus ex machina, I think global warming will fundamentally change the biosphere for the worse (from humanity's point of view). So this century will, I expect, turn out to be a century of adaptation to the worst effects of climate change. In that sense, that “long-term sustainability” to which you refer is very far off.

 And to close, I'd like to add a few comments of my own:

 I completely agree that solidly evidence-based policy should be the obvious choice, as does every single person I have spoken to on the subject, but shockingly this is not always the case...in some places, it's not even often the case. Too often, ideology and financial interests weigh heavily in policy, and the result, we see legislation that ignores or cherry-picks evidence. This is a trend that we absolutely have to reverse, or any hope of a fair and just society vastly diminishes. Parties that shun evidence and science should be made to pay a penalty for this, and it is up to the voters to make sure that this happens.

 Similarly, the ability to collaborate should be a criteria that everyone evaluates at the voting booth, as it tends to produce governments that are much more flexible and able to craft well-rounded policies. This ability also correlates highly with the ability to empathize with others, and it is easy to note that the parties that are most uncooperative also tend to promote policies that benefit some while marginalizing others. It's been noted by any number of social scientists that inequality is one of the greatest threats to social stability in this century, and partisan politics only further exacerbates this problem.

 This may be my liberal (or some might say libertarian) bias speaking, but the fact that conservative political parties tend to be far less evidence-based is an elephant in the room that needs addressing. There is a long list of policies, some mentioned here, in which conservative positions have been consistently disproven, and yet continue to be dogmatically defended. Obviously, there is some disconnect here; a reluctance to admit error, misplaced party loyalty, or perhaps a little of both. Loyalty, however, should have nothing to do with politics. Policies are what matter. Only this realization, and the subsequent willingness to abandon a party when its policies start disconnecting from the facts, can save democracy. Informed voters, who turn away from politicians that promote such failed notions as austerity or the subsidization of fossil fuel companies, can and do make all the difference in democratic societies. If we wish to continue enjoying the many benefits of a representative government, then staying informed and involved is the price we have to pay. I actually consider it less a price than a privilege.

 Finally, it should be noted that GDP as a global measure of success, as I may have mentioned in previous blogs, is not a great measure at all. I don't even agree that it is sustainable in the long-term, because it excludes so much, especially pollution, which even a Carbon Tax would not entirely factor in. It also encourages the rampant consumption that sits at the core of our current environmental dilemma, pushing other developing countries to consume as the U.S. does (read: not sustainably) in order to let them compete economically. Societies are much more than just the marketplace, and I believe that we should have a set of indicators that more accurately reflects this. Many countries have broadened how they measure success, and the results are encouraging. Success in the realm of public policy, as I see it, lies in taking a hard look at the realities we face, and then in using unflinching honesty to answer those questions that confront us. 

Japan - It's the Little Things

 Well, having written a lot of articles about science and sociology lately, I felt it was time to break for some lighter fare and touch on Japan again, since there is always so much more to say. This is aimed a bit more at those who haven't been here, as a way of trying to explain the nuts and bolts of what it's really like to live in the Land of the Rising Sun. Not just what you might see in travel magazines, mind you, but the weird, quirky stuff that often gets left out – both the good and the bad.

 Beauty and the Olfactory Beast: Japan is a land of contrasts, and one that I frequently can't help but notice is that you will often see beautiful, carefully refined, lovingly maintained gardens...right next to foul-smelling, shabbily maintained, open sewers. Japan in general opts for trench sewers with removable concrete slabs on top, but these slabs aren't air-tight, and so the result is that the smell of raw sewage often permeates the air, especially on hot summer days (which, here in Okinawa, translates to about half of the year). Given that the downside of this is so glaringly obvious, I can't imagine how this is still the general practice, but there it is. If anyone from the public works commission reads this, you should know that we bury our sewers in Canada, and I promise you it works just fine – I beg you to give it a whirl.

 The Culture of Cute: Everything, and I mean everything here has a mascot. A cutesy, cartoony mascot that stares back at you, waving from bank signs, food packages, utility bills, you name it. The Japanese, for some reason, are obsessed with cuteness. Think Hello Kitty. Think Pokemon. Then take that and multiply it a hundred thousand times, and you have some idea. For a few people (some women, and perhaps wildly flamboyant homosexuals) this is a vision of paradise, but for your average male this is like being forced to live out of your 5-year-old sister's room...for as long as you are here. And it's not just limited to the visual...almost every advertisement is delivered in a high-pitched, feminine, cartoonishly cute voice. It's enough to give you cavities. It may also have something to do with why Japanese men tend to drink heavily.

 The Hospitality Duality: I will come right out and verify that it's true what people think about Japan in terms of politeness – the people are almost always impeccably polite, even the students, which is immensely helpful when teaching junior high school, let me tell you. They will go out of their way to make you feel welcome and accommodate your needs, and I mean bend over backwards-type stuff, like “Oh, you need a new scooter to get around? Here, just take this one I have lying around”. THAT BEING SAID, I feel I should also note that as a foreigner, you will never, ever, be accepted completely into Japanese society - that's just how it is. While most Japanese have little exposure to foreigners, and as such develop a sort of fascination with chatting foreigners up when they have the chance, you'll always be an outsider unless you grew up here, especially if you're non-fluent and non-Asian. This just is what it is, and expats learn to deal with it.

 The Land of Peace, Harmony, and Loudspeaker Trucks: While yes, living in Japan may present a few challenges, I find it overall a positive experience. I feel like my job is great, my stress levels are low, and I couldn't be happier...that is, until the loudspeaker trucks drive by. For some reason, it's perfectly legal in this country to bolt speakers onto the top of a van or truck, and just drive around all day, blaring whatever you feel like blaring. We have these people on street corners in Canada sometimes too, but the police typically shoo them away, or lock them up before they can bother too many people. Here, especially during election season, these people go mobile, so that they can annoy almost everybody, excluding perhaps the deaf. In fact, after having to listen to my fiftieth election message of the day despite closed windows, bolted shutters, and the fingers buried knuckle-deep in my ears, there are times that I envy the deaf.

 Reduce, Confuse, Recycle: While Japan does make a reasonably good effort to recycle, how it goes about it is unnecessarily complicated and often baffling, especially for foreigners. While I could pick on any number of public services and institutions that are similarly wrapped in layers of paralyzing bureaucracy, how to sort one's garbage sticks out as one of the most onerous, since one has to deal with it every week. There are, depending on where you are, up to twelve different categories of garbage and recycling, each of which must be sorted, bagged, labelled, washed, and deposited in the right place on the right day. The days, incidentally, can change from week to week, just to keep you on your toes. If one's goal were to create a user-friendly recycling system that would encourage the maximum level of participation, a good first step would be to adopt any approach but this.

 The Ups and Downs of Japanese Cuisine: I love certain Japanese foods, probably the same ones you know from your own home countries, like sushi and tempura, that have made the leap across cultures. There are also some great dishes here that most people outside of Japan don't get to try, like okonomiyaki (a sort of omelette/pancake thing with fish, veggies and a yummy sauce). However, there are some downright weird things on the menu here too. For one, mayonnaise goes on everything. I don't know how it got so popular, but it goes in salads, on pizza, and there are walls of it in every supermarket. There is also a tendency to pickle all manner of foods that I just don't understand - not once have I eaten any of these dishes and subsequently felt happy about the decision. I find that a westerner can eat here by hunting down a modest selection of western staples and supplementing it creatively, but there are entire aisles that I have to bypass in the supermarket because I have absolutely no clue what to do with half of it, and the other half just makes me want to scream “WHY?!”.

 Japan is a unique place, full of culture and history, and I chose to live here not once but twice because I do love it, despite its many foibles. A lot of expats that choose to live here, as “Japanophiles”, tend to paint a rosy picture, but after all, this is a blog and not a travel brochure, so I prefer to offer a slightly more...nuanced view. Should you visit Japan? Yes, definitely, there's no other country like it. Is it perfect? No. As in any country, there is always room for improvement, but hey, at least the sushi is fresh.

Predicting the Future, Part II

 In an earlier article, I talked about technological advances I see on the horizon. This time, I want to go into the social trends that I foresee changing the world in the next few decades, as this has always been another area of keen interest for me. In part, I went into Psychology and Sociology so that I might do just this – use as much data as possible in order to create a predictive framework, and anticipate where we might be headed. This, in my mind, is the best way to design policies which can creatively address emerging problems, and even circumvent a great many as well. I hope someday to find a job in a charity or government organization that will let me do this for a living.

 Human history is a great predictor of future trends, and a familiarity with it is immensely helpful in making sense of complex social trends. The trick is to recognize which trends progress steadily, which progress exponentially, and which tend to fluctuate wildly. With the first two, accurate prediction is always a possibility with enough data, while in the latter, making accurate predictions are impossible, but sensible policy can help to mitigate the effects of uncertainty. In the twentieth century, we have seen a number of important advances which have changed the course of human societies. It is possible, with varying degrees of accuracy, to extrapolate how many of these will continue to affect our societies, and while I'm certainly not the first to do it, I may have a different vision to offer.

 We are, in the West at least, progressing toward a more equitable society, as we have had some time now to tinker with our democracies, figuring out through trial and error both what works and what doesn't. The civil rights battles that were fought over the last century, for example, have paved the way for those being fought today, particularly by gays and lesbians, and as this is a hot topic in the news lately, it is as good as any issue to address first. We now know, through our early struggles with segregation and apartheid, that these sort of policies have harshly negative impacts on a society. The negative impacts on the economy and moreover on the soul of a society should be apparent to anyone who conducts even a cursory review of history. Legally enshrining discrimination creates an atmosphere of uncertainty, institutionalizes cruelty, and can lead to the type of blatant scapegoating that the survivors of the Holocaust must be all too familiar with. It turns neighbour against neighbour, families against one another, and this atmosphere is corrosive to overall social well-being and cooperation.

 Social conservatives, who typically the ones to advocate such discrimination, tend to trumpet loudly how they are only seeking to “preserve family values”, but what they really mean is that they wish to preserve families like their own. This mentality - “there must be something wrong with anyone who's not like me” - belongs to the infancy of our species, and while many of us grow out of it as adults, learning to take a broader view and think in shades of grey rather than in black and white, not everyone has access to the sort of education and experience that would allow them to do so. Such attitudes are based on simple ignorance, for the most part, and it is easy to track how with greater knowledge of how real gays and lesbians actually live, the Western world has come to terms with the fact that they are normal, everyday people who simply want to live out their lives in peace, and who not only have families, but strong values as well.

 As we move forward, there is certainly resistance to this in more conservative countries, but as culture becomes more globalized through the power of the internet, the social and economic pressure will only increase against countries that choose to discriminate against their own LGBT citizens. We see this now with Uganda, which, after passing what could only be described as draconian anti-gay laws, has seen millions of dollars in aid from foreign countries evaporate within weeks. As with the civil rights movements of the past, momentum will likely continue to build, until the last holdouts are widely regarded as barbaric, and internationally ostracized. It will take time, but this will likely be as much of a non-issue in thirty years as it is in places like Canada and the Netherlands today.

 Another social issue that is ready to fall is similarly related to what we do with our own bodies – the use of narcotics. In the past, most nations have taken the position that the government has the right to dictate what substances its citizens may choose to ingest, but, as more and more around the world are coming to realize, this position has been a spectacular and expensive failure. Not only has it proven impossible to enforce, but in the course of trying to enforce such laws, they are often used as a tool to oppress minorities, which has become the clear pattern in many countries, most notably the United States. Initially, marijuana laws were used a means of controlling the Mexicans who primarily smoked it, but now, although both whites and blacks have similar patterns of use, blacks are incarcerated far, far more for the crime of simple possession. To be blunt, this is a shameful waste of human life and potential, an affront to justice, and probably one of the worst ways to effectively handle the real problem of drug addiction. As history has shown, particularly during Prohibition, the threat of punishment is an ineffective deterrent in fighting substance abuse, and driving the production and sale of controlled substances underground simply fuels criminal organizations, while depriving governments of taxable income. We now know that there are much more effective means of coping with these issues. 

 In Portugal, for example, all substance abuse laws were struck down, not just those relating to marijuana, and instead substance abuse is now treated as a public health issue. This policy has proven stunningly effective, and in addition, has saved huge amounts of money that can be then utilized more effectively elsewhere. In Colorado, which has recently legalized the sale and purchase of marijuana, the tax revenues have exceeded expectations, and they can now spend more money on programs designed to prevent children from using drugs in the first place, which are, incidentally, far more effective a deterrent than the threat of jail. Across the world, the tide of opinion is shifting on this issue, and as more success stories like those above emerge, the further it will shift. Uruguay, the first country to entirely legalize the sale of marijuana, is most likely to be the first of many, as nations realize that they are missing out on a massive, untapped source of revenue, from a product that has been demonstrated to be far less harmful than alcohol, non-addictive, and that may even have health benefits. In thirty years, the worldwide use of marijuana, through state-regulated sources, will likely rival the use of alcohol, and the archaic way we handle addiction to more dangerous substances will likely see a great deal of reform.

 Inevitably, we must circle back to the economy in any discussion about the future of society, as it too will likely change radically over the next thirty years or so. In the past century, what we have seen is the running-out of the capitalist model, as it consistently demonstrates its rather glaring weaknesses. While it may have been well-adapted to the conditions of the previous century, as conditions change it seems increasingly ready to give way to better models. The foremost weakness of capitalism is its inability to incorporate factors which, although essential to consider in the long term, lie outside the purview of the traditional Neo-Classical economic model. “Externalities”, as they have come to be called, encompass such factors as the value of the services provided by the environment, the effects of pollution, the human costs of unfair labour practices, the social impact of corner-cutting when essential services are privatized, and so on. Capitalism is, at its heart, about the bottom line, and while this may be important when talking strictly about the economy, it cannot be all we talk about in a real-world discussion of the economy, because in reality its impact can be felt far beyond the financial sector. Economic decisions have social and environmental blow-back, a fact we are beginning to truly come to terms with, and in time this may steer us to elect leaders with experience beyond simply the business world. While economic understanding may be a necessary prerequisite for leadership, it should no longer be a sufficient one.

 Beyond this however, we must also consider that the very basis for our current economy may be outdated in very short order. As it stands, energy and production are cornerstones of our global economy, but technology is on the brink of forever changing how we look at both. Today, we are passing the point at which clean energy can compete with fossil fuels, and where science is finding ways to derive energy from an increasing number of sources, with ever-increasing efficiency. In under thirty years, fossil fuels will fall by the wayside, partially out of environmental necessity, but largely driven by market competition, and energy will be cheaply, widely available, a virtually inexhaustible resource. If you doubt this, simply consider that enough energy falls to the Earth every day as sunlight to power civilization for hundreds of years – and this is to say nothing of wind and tidal energy, which we are also becoming adept at tapping into. We are, and will continue to be, driven by environmental and economic necessity to push these technologies forward, and when the “free energy” tipping point is reached, it will unlock the potential for technology to boost our quality of life in ways previously undreamed of.

 Another technology, which is already beginning to change the fundamental nature of production, is 3-D printing. As we become increasingly adept at creating what goods we need on demand, the mass-production paradigm will simply collapse. Already, individuals can purchase 3-D printers for home use, and as such can make many of the goods that they used to have to buy in stores, tailoring them more specifically to their desires, and in many cases producing them more cheaply. Removing a supply chain and all the costs associated with it is vastly more efficient, and for this reason alone the market will inevitably have to adapt. Product design will become paramount, as goods designed to last longer rather than be thrown away after a few uses will be what people will want to print at home, and thus the sale of such designs rather than the sale of the items themselves will become a focal point of the economy. The ease and low cost of home printing, in tandem with lowering energy costs and the boom in robotics, will fundamentally change the way we live our lives, making them more comfortable, and adding to our leisure time. Creativity, rather than manual production, will be the cornerstone of the economy for the first time in history, as machines will do virtually everything that we would rather not. National economies that prepare for this best will naturally reap the greatest rewards, and education will be paramount in maintaining this type of infrastructure. Nations that ignore this in the near-term will find themselves becoming increasingly irrelevant in the long-term global economic climate.

 On a happy note, I would like to close by noting a positive social trend, one that I only hope will continue – the popularization of science and scientific literacy among the general population. Again thanks to the internet, scientific information is spread around the world at unprecedented rates, and as such, rates of scientific literacy are higher now than they have ever been. As access to the internet extends further and further into remote areas, allowing for cheaper and more balanced education, as well as more free access to the press and world events, people will continue to better understand the world and the universe at large. The recent fundamentalist surge in reaction to this is understandable in a sense, as scientific literacy is a fairly reliable inoculation against fundamentalism, but this is a battle that the fundamentalists cannot win. Knowledge, once it is spread, can't be stuffed back where it came from. We are (slowly but surely) getting smarter as a species, and I can only hope that this means we will be able to safely navigate all the changes that are, at this very moment, rushing our way.