Human beings have always been
fascinated with what the future holds, and I'll be the first to admit
I'm particularly curious about where this big experiment called
civilization will eventually take us. I've been a science fiction fan
since I was a kid, one of a generation that was raised on Star Trek
and Star Wars, and have read most of the works of the great sci-fi
authors like Isaac Asimov, Arthur C. Clarke and Robert A. Heinlein.
Here I could launch into a glowing endorsement of all the fantastic
science fiction authors you should try if you're even mildly
interested in cracking into this genre, but I'll just settle for
giving you the Wikipedia
link. Although as a Canadian, I can't help but mention Robert J.
Sawyer, since he is probably one of the best new authors on the
scene, and bases more than one of his books in his native Canada.
What really fascinates me about
science fiction is that it is often eerily predictive of how society
actually evolves. For example, it wasn't a scientist that brought us
the concepts for portable communicators, diagnostic beds, or
telepresence – that was Star Trek. What began as science fiction
fifty years ago eventually became reality, as scientists began
tackling real world problems using the ready-made solutions that
science fiction writers conveniently suggested. I would hazard a
guess that many of these scientists were sci-fi fans themselves as
children, and recognized that the possible futures envisioned in
science fiction were in many cases better and more desirable than the
present in which we find ourselves. To write fiction that people want
to read, a writer has to have some understanding of human nature and
basic psychology, and as such, they seem to be uniquely gifted at
predicting what technologies that we will tend to embrace, and how
societies will adapt as a result.
Having read a lot (and I mean a LOT)
of science fiction, and as someone who keeps on top of the latest
science news, I'd like to take a stab at a few predictions of my own.
Having seen certain technologies that I read about as a child emerge
and become commonplace during my lifetime, it's hard to ignore the
fact that these technologies are changing our lives, and even harder
not to wonder where we will be in fifty years, given how far we have
already come in such a short time. I believe that technology stands
to vastly improve the human condition and provide us with exciting
new opportunities (if we don't destroy ourselves in the interim, of
course), and here's a few ways that I think this will happen:
- Genetic engineering, regenerative medicine, cloning, and nanotechnology stand to vastly improve human health in the coming decades. Already, after only about a decade or two apiece as serious fields of study, each have provided huge advances in our understanding of our own bodies, and enabled incredible new therapies to be pioneered. In the coming decades, we will likely see therapies that are being tested today come to a hospital near you, allowing us to beat many forms of cancer, cure previously untreatable genetic diseases, enhance our immune systems to fight increasingly more drug-resistant pathogens, restore lost limbs, hearing, or eyesight - the list goes on and on. What has been and will no doubt continue to be a controversial issue however, is our increasing ability to alter our own genome. Nonetheless, I believe that as the technology becomes increasingly available, we will increasingly embrace it. Given the choice to cheaply and safely do so, I believe many potential parents will, sooner or later, begin medically manipulating the genes of their unborn children. Within my lifetime, I foresee an increasing percentage of parents requesting detrimental genes, like the ones for cystic fibrosis, haemophilia or for certain types of cancer be removed from their children before birth. Eventually, this will extend to non life-threatening maladies such as nearsightedness, and finally to cosmetic but generally undesirable traits, such as baldness. Eventually, as the technology becomes more proven, we will begin adding traits to our genome in much the same way we do with produce today, most likely beginning with enhancing the immune system, adding resistance to certain toxins, or perhaps even increasing our (occasionally limited) mental capacity. Inevitably, we will also use these technologies to combat ageing and death, as a generation of Baby Boomers enters retirement and provides the economic incentive to do so. Already, research is being done that will allow us to remain healthier and more robust for much longer, and this trend will only increase sharply over the coming decades. One theory put forward by Aubrey de Grey, a pioneer in gerontology and regenerative medicine, states that year by year, as we increasingly get better at extending the human lifespan, eventually we will reach a point where it is extended by more than one year per year. This effectively would be the tipping point, after which we could, as a species, become more or less immortal...barring accidents of course. Without getting too technical, he has identified seven factors that underlie the detrimental effects of ageing, and believes it well within the reach of science to eventually eliminate them all. The sociological implications of this would of course be immense, but given the inevitability of this in the next hundred years at most, it is a topic that we should certainly begin considering. Further off, but still on the horizon, is the potential for nano-machines, otherwise known as nanites, that could actually enter our bodies and safeguard our health. Within a fifty year time-frame, we will likely see this emerge as one more way in which we enhance our bodies and quality of life. While some may see this as one step closer to turning us into the Borg Collective, we in fact already incorporate a great deal of technology into our bodies. Pacemakers, joint and limb replacements, artificial organs – these allow many people who would otherwise have difficulty functioning to live productive lives, and they do not make us any less human. It is similarly easy to argue for the benefits of nanites - they could clear plaque from our arteries, destroy bacteria and viruses, and even help to repair damaged tissue. With such immense potential, it seems highly unlikely that we will overlook nanotechnology for long, just because some of us find it "spooky".
- Materials science, propulsion technology, and robotics will likely open up the solar system to us in exciting new ways over the coming decades. We are explorers by nature, and having conquered most of our own planet, we need new frontiers. Luckily, new technologies are being developed today that will provide us with the ability to much more cheaply launch both human beings and increasingly advanced robots into space, as well as to both travel and work in space much more effectively. One of the most promising new developments is the SKYLON space plane concept, a single stage to orbit (SSTO) aircraft that can take off and land like a plane, but also propel itself into orbit. This sort of design eliminates the wasteful use of rockets and the need to carry massive amounts of fuel, thus vastly cutting the costs of space development and truly opening space up to us. In combination with the recent entry of private companies into the race for space, this will mean that the commercial development of our solar system is just around the corner. The reason that this is inevitable is simple economics – there is more wealth in our own cosmic back yard than most of us can imagine, even if you can imagine an awful lot. Scientists estimate that the asteroids and extinct comets that litter the inner solar system and even occasionally cross Earth's orbit are laden with many of the materials vital to modern industry here on Earth, such as gold, zinc, platinum, cobalt and rare earths, as well as water ice that can easily be processed into fuel. There are already companies proposing to capture one of these into a stable Earth orbit and mine it – imagine, if you will, a chunk of iron, gold and platinum the size of Mount Everest, and then imagine the wealth that mining it could inject into the world economy. Moreover, the asteroid belt that sits between to orbits of Mars and Jupiter is teeming with such objects, providing enough raw material to keep humanity busy for hundreds or even thousdands of years. The key to global prosperity is up there, if we're willing to just go up and get it. As the new space-race heats up (and it will, as more and more nations enter it), there is a general consensus within the scientific community about how this will progress. Asteroids first, then onto the moon and the inner planets – Mars, Venus and Mercury. A base on the moon is a logical step after the space station, as it has its own deposits of minerals and ice to mine, meaning that it could be self-sufficient. Eventually, it could potentially serve as an excellent place to build space-craft (low gravity = low launch costs), and the dark side has been looked at as a good place for telescopes, since there would be very little light pollution. The next stop on the list would be Mars, which gets a lot of attention of course, as it is the one planet in our solar system most like the Earth, and therefore is the best candidate for colonization. Already there are organizations looking at a permanent base there, because the technology to create one (or perhaps a few) already exists. Once the wealth from asteroid mining hits the world economy, this will become a much more appealing and politically popular option than it is today. Instead of being seen as a pie-in-the-sky dream, it will become the next logical step outwards, and a home away from home for those involved in mining the asteroid field just beyond its orbit. There are many ways that Mars could be made more hospitable, such as introducing soil bacteria and algae to begin making real soil out of the dust that coats its surface, as well as intentionally crashing a few hundred water-laden asteroids into it, adding instant oceans and atmosphere. These are options that we can begin to implement very soon, paving the way for a green Mars in the not-too-distant future. Venus, our other solar neighbour, would be a bit more of a challenge given its runaway greenhouse effect and toxic atmosphere, but science actually has a few ideas about how to tackle those sticky issues. Because that's a bit beyond the time-frame I'm trying to look at I won't go into too much detail, but if you're interested, feel free to take a look at this handy Wikipedia article.
- The internet and advanced communications technologies will change global society, making it...well, more global. This one is a bit of a no-brainer, because we can easily see the beginnings of it all around us. We are better connected now than we have ever been, and although what you see in the news may cause you to sometimes think otherwise, we are actually living in the most peaceful era that humanity has ever enjoyed as a direct result. Being able to access news from around the world and talk to people anywhere in the world creates a much deeper understanding of and empathy for our fellow human beings, and this is having a definite political effect. Populations are much more hesitant to support wars now, and governments recognize this. Add to this our increasingly interconnected trade networks, and of course, the nuclear arsenals many nations now possess, and governments have greater incentive than ever to negotiate before resorting to force. We are lucky enough to be witnessing the birth-pangs of a truly global civilization. While there are concerns now about communications technology being used for spying, the quantum encryption and transmission technologies that scientists are working on today will eventually help to ensure an essentially “spy-proof” internet, where it is physically impossible for governments to intercept private data. This will change the dynamics of how government works, giving more power to the people, and making governments more accountable. The high levels of transparency that using technology in government will allow will make it easier to root out corruption and waste in real time. The days of rule-by-decree and the tin-pot dictator are numbered, because the people will be able to organize too effectively for this to be possible. Furthermore, we are, as a result of communications technology, becoming increasingly intelligent as a species. No, really. General intelligence has shot up over the past few decades, as education improved and as information became readily and cheaply available, and this is driving policy in new and positive directions. An informed population is an excellent safeguard for democracy, and allows emerging democracies to develop without many of the growing pains that would otherwise occur. Viva la communicacion!
- Advances in 3-D printing, artificial intelligence and automation will revolutionize the economy. It may not happen overnight, but it's already underway. 3-D printing is an amazing technology, and it is already on the verge of triggering a new industrial revolution. Creating ready-made products in one's own home, without the need for a large manufacturing plant, shipping, or any of the other costs associated with traditional goods could streamline our economy and eliminate immense amounts of waste. Goods can be made not only more environmentally friendly, but more cheaply, at a time when both the environment and the working class could use a break. The ability to easily and rapidly produce goods that are tailor made to precise specifications has some pretty massive advantages. Applications range from food to industrial design to medical implants, and already there is talk of using this technology in space exploration - picture robots using massive 3-D printers to create bases on other planets. Coupled with automation, what 3-D printing means for the workforce is that there will be very few manufacturing jobs. On the surface this may sound bad, but when you think about it, most people don't actually like manufacturing jobs, and there will be lots of other more highly skilled and interesting jobs created to replace them. Of course, this will require that education be much more readily available, and to do this, charging tuition for a higher education will likely have to be abolished entirely. In an information-based economy, this is really the only rational choice. Educational institutions will simply have to be regulated, and although they might initially protest, I'm sure they will come to realize that they will always have a pivotal role to play in society, whether they are funded by tuition or by tax dollars. At least if they are funded by and overseen by the government, there will be legal incentives for them to be as efficient as possible, and not overcharge, as they are currently known to do...frequently. On the subject of artificial intelligence, it should be said that we are already using machines to do a great deal of our thinking for us, and that this has been (generally) a good thing, as it tends to make us a great deal more productive overall. There is of course the problem of over-relying on computers to manage our lives, to the point that we lose our self-sufficiency, but by and large, computers simply help us to do the things we already do, only better. As computers increasingly become able to perform higher-level tasks at parity with their human counterparts, this will increasingly be the case. Humans will simply have more leisure to become better at doing those things that are difficult for computers – jobs involving creativity and complex social interaction, for example. Also, as computers shrink in size, they will eventually be completely ubiquitous, and integrated into not just our homes and cars, but also our clothes, and even our bodies. Within fifty years, we will surely have artificial intelligences able to either think for themselves, or do such a convincing job imitating our thought processes as to be indistinguishable from the real thing. The implications of this are fairly enormous, but foremost I imagine most people will have at least one companion AI, either built into their home, in humanoid form, or integrated into their personal devices like SIRI, that will be a constant companion. Featured in several science fiction novels that I've read, I believe that the human need for companionship will make this a reality, and that we will integrate artificial intelligences into our families. After all, we assign human traits so easily to animals that it seems hard to believe we would not easily do so with a robotic intelligence, and in doing so, help them to share our values and goals. For this reason I'm very skeptical of movies that depict apocalyptic wars with machines of our own creation. While certainly fun to watch, I don't believe they offer any sort of realistic view of the future.
So, I hope I blew your mind a little
here today. If so, you have a taste of why I keep coming back to both
science fiction and science in general – they're just frickin' awesome. There is a
lot more that could be said, and certainly any number of alternate
predictions that could be made here, but this is merely an extrapolation
of the technologies that are either on the drawing board or emerging
into the real world today. In my lifetime alone, we have made huge
leaps forward, and as new technologies interact, there is no doubt
that such leaps will continued to be made, and at an increasing rate.
I hope I'm around long enough to see whether or not these predictions
come true, but even if I'm wrong, I'm sure the reality will be as
mind-boggling as any fiction.
